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https://preview.redd.it/lc8zwl7tsdd51.jpg?width=306&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a82ff8f0fe82289f46af889e14bcca0e27f5100f
submitted by 27JJuldartmoor to u/27JJuldartmoor [link] [comments]

Kaiserreich Beta 0.13 - ‘A King and his Captain’

Continuing our pattern of smaller, more focused updates we are delighted to bring you the Romanian rework! Of course we haven’t been idle in other places; many other nations, notably Serbia, have received changes as well. In addition, we are very pleased to give you one of our greatest performance improvements to date as a result of our new division limit and our totally rewritten annexation decisions; details for both can be found below. We hope you enjoy this update!
- The KR4 team
Changes
New Systems
Division Limit:
A new mechanic has been added to all nations; the division limit. It represents the total number of divisions that a country can safely support. The AI will simply not build past this limit. Players can build past this limit, but they will be notified when they’re over it (via a flashing alert on their Recruit & Deploy tab) and will receive a malus that increases the more they go over that limit.
Other Notable Additions
Reworked/Expanded Focus Trees
New Events
New Decisions
New Custom Country Paths
New Game Rules
GFX
New portraits for:
Music Mod
Mapping
Miscellaneous
Fixes
Notable Fixes
Other Fixes
We hope you enjoy playing Kaiserreich as much as we did making it!
- The KR4 Team: Alpinia, Arvidus, Augenis, Blackfalcon501, DSFDarker, Carmain, Dr. Njitram, Drozdovite, Edouard Saladier, Éloïse, Eragaxshim, Fbruchmueller, Flamefang, Fort, Gideones, JazzyHugh, Jeankedezeehond, Jonjon428, Jonny BL, Krco, Liegnitz, Maltesefalcon, Matoro, NukeGaming, OperationsManagementDecisions, PPsyrius, Pietrus, Rei VL, Rylock, SPQR, Starguard, Telcontar101, The Alpha Dog, Thomahawk2k, Vidyaország, WordZero, Yard1, Zankoas and Zimbabwe Salt Co.
submitted by Flamefang92 to Kaiserreich [link] [comments]

Grand Theft Auto V: A Look Back at the Major Leaks

Here we go again. Buckle in. This post is a biggie, this time covering Rockstar’s latest entry in the series about grand theft…and auto, "Grand Theft Auto V". There were so many questions about what possible direction this franchise could go, with many rumours seemingly just spouting nonsense and seeing what gained traction, but there were some common themes amongst the leaks. Whether this meant that this was all genuine information, or whether they just all started copying each other, no one will know – although I believe in the latter.
Of course, naturally, with this being Rockstar’s biggest franchise and people desperate for just about any piece of information they could get, legitimate or otherwise, there were hundreds of rumours and leaks for this game, and I will do my best to sift through the endless supply of such and talk about the ones worth mentioning.
Let’s jump in, and here is a spoiler warning just in case.

May 4, 2010 – E3 Leak Reveals “Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 2”

Way back in 2010, Game Reactor shared the alleged lineup for 2010’s E3 event, detailing many games that are going to be revealed, including “Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 2”. Other interesting mentions in this “leak” include a new “Half-Life”, a sequel to “Bully”, and a premature announcement of “Kingdom Hearts 3”.
Outcome? Fake. Never trust E3 leaks.

26 July, 2010 – Is "GTAV" Heading to Hollywood?

VG247 shares with the world the first real hint that the game is headed back to America’s sun-spoilt West Coast. While the article linked does have the tease in a conversation format, it does make mention of Hollywood and that an announcement could be coming soon. Separately, it seems Eurogamer reached out to their own sources and were able to confirm that while Rockstar had been scouting out the Hollywood area, they were unable to confirm for what actual franchise it was for. This wouldn’t be the first time Rockstar has taken "GTA" to Los Angeles, with "San Andreas" already staking that claim.
Outcome? Confirmed.
As we all know, "GTAV" was set in Los Angeles, and this was our first clue to such.

February 28, 2011 – Rockstar Registers Web Domains

Courtesy of XboxAchievements, due to the original source being taken down, readers are able to treat themselves to a handful of domain names that Rockstar had publicly registered. While on the surface these do not appear to have any mention on the game, as correctly speculated in the article, these turned out to be related to in-game websites and businesses. The one’s registered were;
CashForDeadDreams.com - buy second-hand items from the elderly
SixFigureTemps.com - a job site to make money fast
HammersteinFaust.com - an employment firm business in the game
LifeInvader.com -the game's social networking service
The only one registered that doesn’t seem to make an appearance in the game is StopPayingYourMortgage.net, although typing this into an actual browser will take you to Rockstar’s "GTAV" site.
Outcome? Confirmed. As we can see, majority of these actually end up in the game, and I am sure I didn’t even have to provide proof for LifeInvader.

March 8, 2011 – Casting Call Leaked, Rockstar’s Next Game Codenamed “Rush”

GameWatcher reports that Rockstar have put out a casting call for an “interactive project”, which has been code-named “Rush”. The call seeks performers for the following roles;
Mitch Hayes – 38 yrs old – Annoying, wise cracking, highly successful FBI agent. In great shape. Does triathlons, drinks low cal beer, but still has a sense of humor.
Miguel Gonzalez – 25 yrs old – Young Mexican American FBI agent, caught between a few mob bosses. Very clean cut
Clyde – 23 yrs old – Moronic, almost inbred and creepy white trash hillbilly. Very naïve but in a creepy ‘it’s only incest sort of way’
Brother Adam – 50 yrs old – Welsh monk, cult leader, yoga teacher, very lithe, very into exploring your personal tension through gripping massage. Needs Welsh accent.
Mrs Avery – 48 yrs old – Neurotic soccer mom, home maker, anxious and addled on pain killers. Very angry at neighbor MRS Bell.
Mrs Bell – 45 yrs old – Swinger, and mellow Californian divorcee. Ugly but comfortable with self.
Eddie – 47 yrs old – Weed evangelist, guy who started smoking at 30, and is now a leading proponent of marijuana’s fantastic properties. White, awkward.
Ira Bernstein – 56 yrs old – publicist for an actress known as America’s newest sweetheart who just so happens to love animals, orphans, drugs and sex. He’s always trying to hide her latest indiscretion.
Kevin De Silva – 18 yrs old – Albert’s fat, FPS playing gamer son. Smokes a lot of weed, has anxiety issues and a card for a bad back, very soft, very opinionated. Into making racist comments while playing online.
Harut Vartanyan – 42-52 yrs old – Armenian car dealer, moneylender, would be Fagin and would be bully. Heavily connected to the underworld, but irritates people so much no one likes him.
Nervous Jerry – 48 yrs old – paranoiac living in the sticks, near Simon, completely paranoid, and terrified of Simon.
Calvin North – 55 yrs old – clapped out FBI agent who now mostly works offering advice on TV shows – whose only claim to fame turns out to be entirely false – but a decent guy in other ways. Badly dressed. Divorced. Putting on weight.
Jerry Cole – 53 yrs old – disabled IT expert and criminal information vendor.
Rich Roberts – 35 yrs old – English hardman actor, who acts tough but who wants to do serious work – the only problem is he can’t quite read the words.
Alex – 52 yrs old – white, loosie goosie hippy rich guy who has lost his money and is getting desperate but trying not to.
Scarlet – 45-52 yrs old – unshaven female spiritualist and hippy with a love of exploring the wilderness. Very into journeys.
Chad – 29 yrs old – pretty boy misogynist Beverly Hills party boy. Made money, but not as cool as he thinks he is.
Tae Wong – 39 yrs old – somewhat incompetent Chinese mobster, loves doing ecstasy, going to raves.
Taes Translator – 45 yrs old – VERY STRAIGHT LACED Chinese translator, terrified of his boss’s dad. Male, awkward. Needs to speak Chinese.
A big thank you to GTA Fandom for being able to compare the casting call with the game’s final release. Here is a table for those who want to see it;
Comparison between the casting call and the in-game characters
What else is interesting is that Trevor Phillips, one of the game’s main protagonists, was referred to as Simon here, while Albert De Silva in-game is instead Michael De Santa.
Outcome? Confirmed. Although the names have changed, you can definitely see the resemblance of many of the characters in the game, and that the majority did appear albeit under a different name.

March 29, 2011 – Stuntman “Typo” Places "GTAV" on his Resume

Declan Mulvey just might have made a typo when he placed "Grand Theft Auto V" on his resume, saying he did stunt work for the game. However, once eagle-eyed internet sleuths noticed this, according to Eurogamer he told CVG (which I cannot find the article), that it was simply a typo and meant to write “Grand Theft Auto IV”. What is interesting is that this was never corrected, and that he was never in the credits for that game - I think he simply made an oopsie.
Outcome? Confirmed. Definitely not a typo, as he is credit in "GTAV "and is not credited in "GTAIV".

June 5, 2011 - Play as a Cop in "GTAV"

As shared on GTAForums, one very controversial rumour regarding the game is that it would feature a story where you play as a rookie cop, working your way up in the ranks to either being the biggest detective in the city, or a cop-gone-rogue. I won’t post the whole “leak” word-for-word, but it sounds like it would have played a lot like L.A. Noire, Rockstar’s detective game also set in Los Angeles.
Based on the rumour, you would start the game as a rookie cop fresh out of the academy, named “Rock or Brock”, and as the story moves along, the player would find himself challenged by his partner who is working in the criminal underworld. The further you progress, the more you would find out that your partner is dirty, but you have a choice to either work with him illegaly or to investigate him - with the endgame resulting in either the player becoming the captain of the police force, or a “dirty cop Kingpin”. Post game, you would continue performing these roles, either abiding and enforcing the law as the captain, or selling contraband and performing other illegal tasks as a kingpin.
Gameplay wise, you would have to respond to dispatches over the radio, perform traffic stops, aid civilians, participate in car chases and even menial traffic tasks such as fining those with faulty brake lights, or speeding. The further you progress, the more involved you get with drug dealers, pimps, and organised crime. If a player wants to stray to the dark side, they can plant and steal evidence, beat informants, and sell drugs and guns.
Other minor details include the return of some characters from San Andreas such as “CJ”, being able to go through SWAT training, helicopter training, performing traffic duty, being able to carry a baton, mace, and taser, and being able to handcuff characters through rotating the analogue sticks.
Obviously, you will learn more details about this leak by opening the above forum post, but at the time this was not well received by all, some questioning why a game made famous for allowing players to commit the crimes they want, would now have them play on the other side of the law.
Outcome? Fake. Nothing turned out to be true, although it did “guess” that the weapon wheel from Red Dead: Redemption would return.

June 20, 2011 – 2012 Release “Pretty Likely” for "GTAV"

Sources close to Rockstar Games have confirmed with GameSpot that development is “well under way”, and that a 2012 release is looking pretty likely. Additionally, Gamespot reports that the final touches are being worked on now, such as minigames, and that the scale of the game is vast, saying “It’s the big one”.
Outcome? Plausible. As we know, the game launched in 2013, and it was a “big one”.

October 25, 2011 – Rockstar Announce "Grand Theft Auto V"

Rockstar Games announce "Grand Theft Auto V" on Twitter.

October 25, 2011 – Kotaku Confirm LA setting, Possible Multiple Playable Characters

On the same day that the game is announced, Kotaku is able to confirm that "GTAV" will be set in Los Angeles, according to their source who is familiar with the game. As well as talking about the setting, they have other sources that the game will feature multiple playable characters -something that was somewhat touched on with "GTAIV’"s expansions. Not much else to report here.
Outcome? Confirmed. The game, as we all know, features three playable characters and is set in Rockstar’s version of LA.

November 2, 2011 – "Grand Theft Auto V" Trailer drops

Get nostalgic here!

November 4, 2011 – Los Santos Map Leaked by Employee?

Thanks to iGTA5 we can see that an employee apparently shared a version of the game’s map on Twitter, which is viewable right here. It does show Los Santos and Vinewood, but we know that this map isn't an accurate representation of the released version - it could be an early version, but I doubt it. Shortly after posting, the account named “toronotoJack233” got deleted.
Outcome? Fake.

November 5, 2011 – UK Magazine Leaks "GTAV" Information

As reported on VG247, it seems that an employee of a Playstation-focused magazine has leaked some information about the recently announced "GTAV". There is quite a lot of information, but it basically comes down to;
It is possible that this is a legitimate leak, some of the points made are representative of some aspects of the final game. However, just looking we can see stuff like rock-climbing, canoeing, and abseiling did not feature, or neither did earthquake tremors. There also was no need to focus on refuelling vehicles, nor was there the ability to use human shields in combat.
Outcome? Plausible. It is possible that some of this information genuinely came about as a leak, although I don’t feel confident enough in the content to say a verified leak – especially as this came after the trailer.

November 8, 2011 – More “Leaks” at GTAForums

Another big pile of leaks, this time from a user called OpenSuvivor, and now on the GTAForums. However, the post had been deleted pretty swiftly by the forum moderators, so we will be using this reddit post as our source of information.
Another big list of stuff that I encourage you to read, even if just for old time’s sake. Some interesting notes though mention;
As we know, 99% of this list is just completely inaccurate, making it easy to determine the validity of this “leak”. Having said that, it’s still fun to read, and of course at the time there is just no way of knowing if it really is fake.
Outcome? Fake. I don't think it is coincidence that these recent fake leaks all came out after the trailer.

March 28, 2012 – Former Rockstar Employee Reveals Information

Another “insider” leak, this time coming from “a friend of someone who recently got sacked from Rockstar North for general misconduct”. While the original document is no longer viewable, it is possible to find out what was written thanks to Playstation Lifestyle. Straight away, looking back, we can make a pretty quick judgement about the validity of this “leak”.
Firstly, they mention that the protagonist “will be one character, and one character alone”. This character’s name is Albert De Silva, and he has a kid Kevin who is pretty much your typical gamer who smokes weed. Our protagonist is the man that we saw in the first trailer, and he will not die at the end of this game.
Next we know that multiplayer lobbies can hold 32 players on Xbox 360 and PS3, and that you will be able to form gangs that level up with reputation, rather than XP. There is an underworld that has a working economy, and the players can take drugs – which will have side effects.
We learn (again) that the map is five times as large as the "GTAIV" map, and that planes are now flyable in this game, unlike the previous "GTA" entry. Guns and cars will also be customisable in this game, allowing suppressors on weapons, and nitrous on cars. Gunfights are now meant to be more realistic, and shooting will be more difficult out of cars due to shaking cameras.
The most interesting piece of information is the mention of the game aiming to be released in May 2013. A release date hadn’t been formally announced at this point by Rockstar, but an end of 2012 release I believe was the consensus at the time.
Outcome? Fake. Some of these points are a mix whole truths and entirely inaccurate, while some also blur the line. For example, they got the main character part correct (as we know that Albert was Michael’s name in development), but they were incorrect in stating one character and that he will not die (for as we know it is possible he can). Multiplayer lobbies only held 16, and there was no underworld economy.

April 10, 2012 – Rockstar Employee’s CV Leaks October 2012 as Release Date

Character animation developer for Rockstar, Alex O’Dwyer, mentions on his CV that he had worked on "Grand Theft Auto V", and that it is expected to release during October 2012, as viewable here. Since this was spotted, it has since been removed, with no comment from O’Dwyer or Rockstar. What is interesting, is that if this is also a legitimate leak, it would have also confirmed a PC version of the game.
Outcome? Confirmed. While the launch dates did end up being incorrect, the mention of the PC version and taking into consideration that he did work on the game, I believe that it is possible that October 2012 was a launch goal internally at Rockstar – at least at one point.

May 15, 2012 – "GTAV" Vehicle List Found in "Max Payne 3"

A user on GTAForums had allegedly found the vehicle list for "Grand Theft Auto V" within the game files of "Max Payne 3", outlining the types of trains, cars, boats, helicopters, and bikes that players would be able to use. Vehicles of note included a cable car, a chair lift, a ski-mobile, and an APC. If memory serves me correctly, these are some of the vehicles mentioned that did not make it into the final game, while on the other hand there are dozens of vehicles that are not mentioned here that are in the game.
Outcome? Fake.

September 9, 2012 – Our First Gameplay Leak?

A popular video that I personally remember doing the rounds before the game’s release was this video here, which shows a car being driven through the incredibly detailed desert, before getting into a helicopter. The map shows an incredibly detailed mountain range, and a desert populated with scenery. It definitely seems like something that would be in the style of the "GTA" series, and one I somewhat believed when I first saw it.
Outcome? Fake. As it turns out, this was just a fan-made video, that has gone over multiple name changes throughout the years – I believe a comment mentioned that this title had once been renamed to suggest it was a "GTAVI" leak.

October 28, 2012 – Polish Site Leaks “GTAV” Promotion Material and Release Date

The promotional material and release date had seemingly been made public – not through Rockstar but a Polish site (a site from Poland…not that stuff you shine stuff with). The posters include Franklin and his dog (at the time I believe he wasn’t revealed), as well as characters preparing to rob the jewellery store (revealed days earlier, per Kotaku). The tagline on the posters suggest that the game is available in Spring 2013 – (March, April, May for us southern hemisphere-ers), which at the time seemed likely as it was pretty clear the game was not coming out in 2012. It is also interesting that “Red Dead: Redemption” was also released in Spring of 2010 – so it isn’t entirely unfeasible to suggest the same for “GTAV”.
Outcome? Confirmed. I believe this is a genuine leak, the artwork is too legitimate, as well as the release date being able to be confirmed by the following…

October 30, 2012 – Rockstar Announce Spring 2013 Release Date

Rockstar Games are “proud to announce that Grand Theft Auto V is expected to launch worldwide spring 2013 for Xbox 360 and Playstation 3”.

January 31, 2013 – Rockstar Announce September 17, 2013 Release Date

Well that was quick.

August 23, 2013 – “GTAV” files discovered on Playstation Store

As Venture Beat reports, users who had preordered “GTAV” on the European version of the PlayStation Store were able to download some files as they had become available on the 22nd of August. Users mined these details, being able to discover the game's soundtrack (here is a reddit thread about it), while the game’s main theme was leaked as well - video of such has since been deleted. Due to the nature of the files, the leaks were primarily audio files, and did not leak to any actual gameplay leaks.
A day later, Playstation provided a comment on the matter, saying;
Regrettably, some people who downloaded the digital pre-order of Grand Theft Auto V through the PlayStation Store in Europe were able to access certain GTA V assets. These assets were posted online. We have since removed the digital pre-order file from the PlayStation Store in Europe. We sincerely apologize to Rockstar and GTA fans across the world who were exposed to the spoiler content. GTA V is one of the most highly anticipated games of the year with a very passionate following, and we’re looking forward to a historic launch on September 17.
Outcome? Confirmed.

September 10, 2013 – Strategy Guide Leaks Map

The world were able to discover just how big the game was when the map for the game was taken from the game’s official strategy guide. The map was posted onto reddit for all to see right here, and many were impressed – one user liking the map to a “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle”. The guide was originally meant to release with the game’s release on the 17th of September, but it seems once retailers received their copies they were able to scan and share some of the information.
Outcome? Confirmed.

September 17, 2013 - Grand Theft Auto V Released

September 22, 2013 – Micro-transactions Discovered

Reddit user u/1880 seemed to discover why it was so hard for players to earn cash in the game and discovered a file that references “cash cards”, ranging from $100,000 to $1,250,000. A copy of the file was uploaded here. However, these "cash cards" were unable to be accessed – despite the game being playable. The original post is quite hopeful that it is just something that was scrapped in development as it “seems very un-Rockstar-y” to the poster.
Unfortunately, reddit user u/Nouveau_Compte was able to provide proof that it was only for online, shared on the same thread.
Outcome? A sad confirmation.

Closing Thoughts & Some Housekeeping

That was a big read, featuring a good mix or confirmed and fake leaks - hopefully giving you the hint to stay vigilant as rumours start to increase in frequency for Grand Theft Auto VI. Having said that, you'll never know what you read that does turn out to be true. Here are a couple other links that you might also find interesting, but didn't include in the post;
GTA V Location Teased in GTAIV Manual
New Casting Call for GTAV
It seems Rockstar games seem to have a high number of rumours, leaks, and just plain lies, given their reputation and the popularity of their games. I can also tell you, the next GTA game that I am working on a post for, already has more sources and "leaks" than I found for GTAV...but this post won't be ready any time soon.
Some other housekeeping notes, I just want to find out a few things;
Other things, these posts might start slowing down - but fear not! They are still being worked on, got a few more in the pipeline. I am also going to limit these posts to games that have only been released. For those who are asking, the idea of a video format is also being explored.
Here are some previous editions of this series;
Thanks for reading, appreciate any and all feedback.
Cheers!
submitted by timmmy8 to Games [link] [comments]

Match Thread: AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace

Match Thread: AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace [Premier League, Round 30]
90+1'' - AFC Bournemouth 0-2 Crystal Palace
Date: 20/06/2020
Competition: Premier League (Round 30)
Venue: Vitality Stadium - Bournemouth
Referee: Stuart Attwell
Seeing as this is the first ever Premier League game to be shown on British terrestrial television - and the first top flight match to be shown since 1988 - I thought I'd dedicate a proper manned match thread to it
Lineups:
Bournemouth: Crystal Palace:
12: Aaron Ramsdale (GK) 31: Guaita (GK)
17: Jack Stacey 2: Joel Ward (YC - 71')
3: Steve Cook (YC - 87') 24: Gary Cahill
5: Nathan Ake 6: Scott Dann
15: Adam Smith (YC - 45+2') 3: Patrick van Aanholt
22: Harry Wilson 14: Danjuma Groeneveld (Sub - 45') 18: James McArthur 44: Jairo Riedewald (Sub - 88')
16: Lewis Cook (YC - 67') 4: Luka Milivojevic Goal - 12'/22: James McCarthy (Sub - 65')
8: Jefferson Lerma 8: Cheikyou Kouyate
20: David Brooks 19: Junior Stanislas (Sub - 61') 9: Jordan Ayew Goal - 23' (YC - 45')
7: Josh King 9: Dominic Solanke (Sub - 50') 17: Christian Benteke 10: Andros Townsend (Sub - 76')
13: Callum Wilson 11: Wilfried Zaha
Substitutes:
Bournemouth: Crystal Palace:
1: Artur Boruc (GK) 13: Wayne Hennessey (GK)
4: Dan Gosling 7: Max Meyer
6: Andrew Surman 10: Andros Townsend (Sub - 76')
9: Dominic Solanke (Sub - 50') 12: Mamadou Sakho
14: Danjuma Groeneveld (Sub - 45') 22: James McCarthy (Sub - 65')
19: Junior Stanislas (Sub - 61') 36: Nikola Tavares
21: Diego Rico 39: Tyrick Mitchell
26: Lloyd Kelly 40: Brandon Pierrick
33: Chris Mepham 44: Jairo Riedewald (Sub - 88')
Here is a legal, free link to the BBC stream, sadly for British users only. Could use a \* cough ** VPN ** cough** but I didn't tell you that)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0' - Traditional pre-kick off silence for Covid-19 victims, and just as importantly, all 22 players take the knee.
2' - Bournemouth completely controlling the early early stages, Josh King looks to be playing on the left hand side as opposed to up front.
4' - Bizarre to be watching a Premier League match with the BBC overlays as opposed to green and blue official Premier League snazzy boi. Feels to me as if the camera is much closer to the pitch too.
5' - Nice piece of play from David Brooks to run the ball to, and eventually behind, the touchline; Bournemouth looking brighter early on.
7' - Palace starting to use the ball for the first real time. Zaha running from the left but a heavy touch lets him down as he reaches full speed. It's all very 'we've not played for 3 months' at the moment.
11' - First real sight of goal, and it falls for Palace. James McArthur passes a defender on the edge of area and is poleaxed, but the ball falls for Zaha, who jinks inside the 18 yard box and curls one just over the far post. Palace looking promising.
12' - GOAL! Palace looked bright for the previous few minutes, and the resulting free-kick from the edge of the 18 yard box is bent perfectly into the top left corner by Luka 'Set-Pieces are Ez Pz' Milivojevic! 1-0 Palace.
17' - Two chances for for Bournemouth! Brooks, who has looked very energetic early on, plays a lovely ball into Callum Wilson, but the rustiness shows, and his first touch is very poor, eventually leading to a corner. This time, another lovely Brooks ball finds Wilson again, only for the striker to head over from a whipped delivery.
18' - This has been the best match of the post-lockdown season by a mile so far.
23' - GOAL! Some goal this. Van Aanholt overlapping on the left hand side absolutely thunders into the 18 yard box, and takes the pass from Zaha well, before whipping a beauty of a ball to Jordan Ayew, who finishes first time into the bottom corner; great build-up, great finish. 2-0 Palace.
24' - D R I N K S B R E A K T I M E
27' - Fully aware that we are barely a quarter of the way through their first game back, but Bournemouth have looked very poor outside of the first few minutes. Everything they try is overhit or ruined by a poor touch, the break has definitely gotten to them.
30' - If this was tennis, Palace would have about 15 'forced errors' on Bournemouth so far.
32' - Bournemouth attempting to come forward in numbers, but Palace are very well organised. Lerma has a slither of sight at goal from just outside the area but toe-prods the ball 30 yards over.
36'- Seems like every attack in this game is coming down the same side; Bournemouth's right, Palace's left. Wilson does well to win a corner, which leads to another; Bournemouth do nothing with it mind, and Palace regather on from left back with a throw.
38'- Another Milivojevic delivery, this time a corner from the left, causes havoc in the six yard box, but a few blocked shots eventually lead to a (imo, soft) free kick for Bournemouth.
42'- Nathan Aké goes down in the penalty area from a corner, nothing in that though, so just another Bournemouth corner. Palace do well to force Cherries back to the halfway line, and again, back to trying to build from midfield.
45+2'- First bookings of the game, Ayew gets a yellow for sending Jefferson 'Discipline points mean prizes' Lerma to the ground. Again, Bournemouth come down the right hand side and win a corner, Stacey breaking forward this time; Palace then break away at pace from the corner, but Adam Smith slams Zaha into the ground and takes a yellow for it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Halftime - Palace comfortably lead and deservedly so. Bournemouth seen a lot of the ball but have produced very little outside David Brooks, whereas Palace have looked sharp and lively from the first ten minutes. Hard to see a way back into this for Bournemouth.
It's okay though because £25m 'one PL goal in his career' Dominic Solanke is waiting on the bench for them.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One change at half-time as Harry Wilson is taken off for Danjuma Groeneveld (I must say, I have never heard of this player in my life)
47' - Second half is underway, and straight into life. Josh King is absolutely clattered by Gary Cahill; he gets the ball but his follow through is definitely high, studs showing and very 'ankle-breaky'. VAR is looking into this, and I would not be surprised if it led to further punishment here for Cahill.
50' - VAR lets Cahill off the hook, but King is done for the game. He hobbles off, and is replaced by the Man, the Myth, the Legend - Dominic Solanke.
55' - Bournemouth have been much brighter this half, dominating possession and flirting with chances in the final third. Danjuma looks lively when on the ball, but Bournemouth need to make solid chances soon.
60' - Considering that Bournemouth have had a considerable amount of the ball, I don't think Guaita has made a save yet. Stanislas set to come on for Bournemouth for a cramped up and struggling Brooks.
64' - Guaita does have to make a save there though! Corner from the right is floated to Aké who meets it well, but only heads it straight at the Spaniard - Aké gets twatted on the head for his troubles, but he stays on after some treatment.
65' - Milivojevic comes off for James McCarthy. The McMidfield is back on.
67' - Another booking, this time for Lewis Cook, who is perhaps unfortunate to see yellow for a challenge on Ayew.
71' - Game is getting very bitty now. Palace look like there in on the break, but Ayew lets a tired touch break the attack down. Joel Ward is then booked for a soft foul on the right.
74' - Cahill lashes over on the volley from 15 yards, Benteke won the knockdown and has had a really solid match. I just learned that Dominic Solanke miraculously has an England cap. Hope for us all.
76' - Second change for Palace, as Townsend replaces Benteke. I'm not commenting on Townsend's hair.
80' - Palace have been excellent, and they defend well again on the right hand side after Callum Wilson broke free. I will be genuinely stunned if Bournemouth get something out of this game in the last ten minutes.
84' - The match summed up in one moment. Bournemouth free-kick from 20 yards, almost identical to where Milivojevic scored from earlier on. Stanislas, right footed, straight into the wall.
86' - Steve Cook catches Ayew and goes into the book. Pack it up boys, this game is done and dusted.
88' - Heartbreak as the McMidfield is broken up. McArthur comes off for an Afro-donning Jairo Riedeweld.
90' - There are SIX minutes of added time. Other than the drinks break, I have no idea where that's come from. Bournemouth don't look like scoring if there was sixty minutes added on.
90+2' - VAR check for an elbow from Lewis Cook, nothing doing though. Would've been a suitable end for Bournemouth had he been sent off.
90+6' - A corner for Bournemouth in the last minute, but nothing comes of it apart from a Zaha counter attack. What a turgid performance; strong from Palace though, who looked impressive.
submitted by JayDeeIsI to soccer [link] [comments]

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy

The Mouthbreather's Guide to the Galaxy
Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch


Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:
  1. Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
  2. Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
  3. Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
  4. This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
  • Are you new to trading?
  • Are you unable to manage your own positions?
  • Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
  • Do you think Delta is just an airline?
  • Do you buy high & sell low?
  • Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
  • Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
  • Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
  • Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
  • If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
  • Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
  • Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you!


Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers


Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
  1. 28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
  2. 3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
  3. 3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
  4. 3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist
Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee


Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.


Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.


Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897


Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

  • ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
  • Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
  • Index rebalancing flows
  • Buyback flows
  • 401k passive flows
  • Carry trade flows
  • Tax day flows
  • Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.


Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

  1. Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
  2. Major index rebalancing June 22.
  3. Watch the violent forex moves.
  4. 6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
  5. 6/19 will be red.
  6. Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
  7. Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
  8. Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
  9. Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
  10. Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
  11. TQQQ flow looks good:
https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Lost in the Sauce: 5,000+ covid deaths a week with no end in sight

Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater… or a global health crisis.
I may do another protest/police-focused post this week, since it could not be included here.
Housekeeping:

Nominees and appointees

Fired-State Department Inspector General (IG) Steve Linick testified to Congress that he informed at least three top Pompeo aides that he was reviewing Pompeo and his wife’s use of government resources. Linick’s testimony undercuts Pompeo’s defense that he couldn’t have fired Linick in retaliation because he was unaware of what investigations the IG was pursuing.
  • Linick also told Congress that before he was fired, he had also submitted a formal document request for records related to Pompeo's and his wife's use of resources. Congressional committees have requested voluntary testimony from the three Pompeo aides. "There's more information we need," one of the lawmakers said. "If we are unable to obtain it voluntarily, it should be subpoenaed."
Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley said he will block two of Trump’s nominees from confirmation until the administration explains watchdog firings... However, these two nominees - director of the National Counterterrorism Center and an undersecretary at the State Dept. - are relatively unimportant to Trump and are unlikely to spur action from the White House.
Trump’s appointee to the United States’ foreign aid agency has denounced liberal democracy and “our homo-empire.” The appointee, Merritt Corrigan, also wrote that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is “the shining champion of Western civilization.”
The Senate confirmed Trump’s nominee Michael Pack to lead the agency that oversees Voice of America despite the fact that Pack’s nonprofit organization is being investigated for possible tax violations. The vote was 53-38, with eight Democratic caucus members not present and Sen. Manchin (D-WV) voting in Pack’s favor.

What is Congress up to?

The Senate Intelligence Committee approved a measure that would require presidential campaigns to report offers of foreign election influence to federal authorities… The committee adopted the measure behind closed doors in a classified setting, adding it to the Intelligence Authorization Act, a bill setting policy for the intelligence community. Senate Republicans, however, are preparing to remove the provision from the bill when it heads to the Senate floor.
  • Sen. Warner has repeatedly tried to pass the bill in the Senate, but it's been blocked by Republicans, including Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee. After she blocked the bill in June 2019, calling it a "blatant political stunt," Trump tweeted his appreciation for her efforts.
Senate Foreign Relations Cmte. Chairman Jim Risch (R-ID) has abandoned efforts to get Pompeo to testify in a routine annual budget hearing… Risch has tried for months to persuade Pompeo to testify but has given up so as to preserve “political capital,” he reportedly said.
  • TO BE CLEAR: Republicans have given up on even the pretense of standard oversight. Sen. Risch is rubber-stamping everything from the White House in order to keep Trump happy.
The House Judiciary Committee has lined up whistleblowers to testify about alleged political interference inside the Justice Department as AG Barr continues to rebuff efforts by the panel to reschedule testimony he committed to in March. The whistleblower hearing has yet to be formally scheduled.
House Judiciary Cmte. Chairman Jerry Nadler has introduced legislation to cut $50 million from the DOJ’s General Administration account, which funds the Attorney General’s personal office… Nadler says the bill, which is unlikely to pass the Republican-controlled Senate, is a response to “continued defiance of Congress and improper politicization of the Department of Justice.”
  • Nadler: “The American people deserve answers from Mr. Barr about actions the Department has taken to harass states during the coronavirus epidemic, his improper interference in cases against President Trump’s political allies, and much more. Because the Attorney General refuses to appear before Congress to provide those answers, we must now use our budgeting authority to compel answers and to reign in his deplorable behavior.”
Senate Republicans authorized Homeland Security Cmte. Chairman Ron Johnson to issue a wide range of subpoenas as part of an investigation into the origins of the Russia probe and allegations of wrongdoing by top Obama administration officials. The Senate Judiciary Cmte. is scheduled to authorize Chairman Lindsey Graham to similarly issue dozens of subpoenas this week.
  • Graham's subpoena authorization covers 53 officials, while Johnson's names 35 individuals. Of those, there's an overlap of two-dozen names including John Brennan, James Clapper, James Comey, Lisa Page, Peter Strzok, and Susan Rice.
The GOP continue to push a Biden-Ukraine conspiracy, but last week Ukrainian prosecutors announced they found no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Hunter Biden.
Former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein testified before the Senate Judiciary Cmte. last week about the origins of the Russia probe… The hearing was not newsworthy, with Rosenstein refusing to be pinned down on anything. “He both meekly defended the investigation and meekly defended the president’s conduct with respect to the investigation—and, in order to do the latter, he, like Barr, overread the degree to which the investigation exonerated the president.”

The courts

D.C. Circuit sets a hearing on Michael Flynn's petition to force the district judge on his case to grant DOJ's motion to dismiss the prosecution for June 12.
  • The Justice Department is pressing forward with its criminal case against a former business partner of Michael Flynn, Bijan Rafiekian. The filing makes several mentions of Flynn’s integral role in the work that led to the two foreign-agent-related felony charges against Rafiekian and maintains the government’s position that Flynn was a co-conspirator in his business partner’s crimes — a curious stance as the government seeks to drop the criminal case it brought against Flynn more than two years ago.
The D.C. Court of Appeals affirmed that the White House unlawfully suspended the press credentials of Playboy Magazine reporter Brian Karem… The three-judge panel ruled that the suspension violated Karem’s constitutional rights because the White House had no written rules or advance notice about what would constitute unprofessional behavior that could temporarily cost him his press pass.
The DOJ has formally asked the Supreme Court to overturn a lower court decision granting House Democrats access to redacted grand jury materials from Mueller’s investigation…
The Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to make it legal to ban same-sex couples from adopting… The DOJ argued that adoption agencies should be allowed to turn away same-sex couples “because it adheres to the belief that marriage is the union of a man and a woman”. Throughout the brief, the department argues that religious freedom must be protected above all else.
A former staffer on Trump's 2016 campaign has filed a new challenge against Trump's use of nondisclosure agreements, asking a New York court to rule in a lawsuit that the agreements drawn up by the campaign are "null, void and unenforceable."
Judge in Jeffrey Epstein grand jury case has ties to those with a stake in outcome… Krista Marx, the Palm Beach chief judge who also heads a panel that polices judicial conduct, has potential conflicts of interest involving three prominent players embroiled in the Epstein sex-trafficking saga: a state attorney, a sheriff, and a former state attorney.

Voting and elections

Both Trump and his press secretary committed voter fraud using residential addresses on their registrations that were not their residences. Kayleigh McEnany cast Florida ballots in 2018 using her parents’ address in Tampa, even though she lived in Washington, D.C., and held a New Jersey driver’s license. Trump cast a Florida ballot this year using a business address in Palm Beach, where he had promised the town government he would not live.
Derek Chauvin, the Minneapolis ex-cop accused of killing George Floyd, allegedly voted illegally in two Florida elections. “While living in Minnesota, working there, paying taxes there, Derek Chauvin cannot claim residency in Orange County,” a Florida candidate for election supervisor writes.
Texas appeals court blocked a lower court ruling that would have allowed people to mail in their ballots to avoid being exposed to the coronavirus. This won’t be the last word in the matter - the courts have been going back and forth on the matter for the past two months.
A judge ruled that Tennessee must give all of its registered voters the option to cast ballots by mail during the coronavirus pandemic. The ruling is likely to be appealed.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court will try to decide whether to remove 129,000 voters from the rolls… The justices declined last Monday to immediately take voters off the rolls and may not rule on the case before the election.
Good read: Stacey Abrams op-ed: I Know Voting Feels Inadequate Right Now. “Voting will not save us from harm, but silence will surely damn us all.”

Coronavirus

America is still experiencing a minimum of 5,000 confirmed deaths from the coronavirus per week, with many states experiencing spikes in cases over the past few days. Charts,
  • For example, Florida has had the most new cases in the last 4 days of any 4 days in the whole outbreak (and that’s not taking into account that the state is undercounting). Texas has seen the most new cases of any 5 days during the outbreak, as has Arizona. Utah, California, Arkansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee also have increasing cases. NYT and JHU.
ICUs across the country are pretty full. In 12 states, plus DC, more than 70% of beds in ICUs are occupied. CDC. Rising ICU bed use “a big red flag.”
Amid a shortage of swabs for COVID tests, the factory Trump visited in Maine will have to throw out all swabs produced during the president’s visit, likely due to Trump and associates refusing to wear face masks. Nearly a third of Maine nursing homes reported last month they had no nasal swabs to collect specimens.
Local health officials relied on the CDC to track Americans returning from China in February, but the data was flawed. “Just let them go,” CDC told local officials frustrated by the inability to track potential early spreaders.
The US has failed to spend more than 75 percent of the American humanitarian aid that Congress provided three months ago to help overseas victims of the virus. “Little to no humanitarian assistance has reached those on the front lines of this crisis in the world’s most fragile context,” executives at 27 relief organizations wrote to the aid agency’s acting administrator, John Barsa, in a letter dated Thursday.
How a St. Petersburg company with no history in medical supplies won a $10 million coronavirus contract. The Trump administration handed out large contracts without much vetting. As a result, a Florida-based company was granted a contract in the first week of its existence.
A section of the House’s coronavirus relief bill championed by Virginia Dem Gerry Connolly contains billions for defense contractors. The provision would cover executive compensation and other perks for defense and intel contractors. The legislation’s wording mirrors what an industry group proposed.
Former Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) has booked his first lobbying client, a company promising a COVID-19 cure and led by a California businessman who’s been collaborating with Rudy Giuliani on a documentary on Joe Biden and Ukraine.

Miscellaneous

Trump ordered nearly 10,000 US troops to leave Germany. The move is the latest twist in relations between Berlin and Washington, which have often been strained during Trump’s presidency.
In another move that is sure to make Putin happy, Trump pressed to invite Russia to this year’s G7 summit. Trump and Putin spoke by phone last Monday and reportedly discussed the meeting. Other members of G7 have spoken out against the idea.
  • Reminder: Last month, Trump announced the US is withdrawing from the Open Skies treaty, another move that allows Russia more freedom to operate as a rogue power.
A federal judge ruled against the Interior Dept. in its attempt to disestablish the reservation land of the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe… “The DC District Court righted what would have been a terrible and historic injustice by finding that the Department of the Interior broke the law in attempting to take our land out of trust,” said Mashpee Wampanoag Tribal Chairman, Cedric Cromwell.
A Twitter Account That Copies Trump's Tweets Word For Word Got Suspended Within 3 Days. Does Twitter have special rules for President Trump? Yes, and this account just proved it.
Civil rights leaders say they’re ‘disappointed and stunned’ after call with Facebook’s Zuckerberg and Sandberg… Zuckerberg gave “incomprehensible explanations” for not taking action against President Trump’s “looting ... shooting” post.
Environmental news:
  • Trump rule changes will allow Alaskan hunters to kill bear cubs, wolf pups in their dens.
  • The Trump administration moved forward Friday with plans to scale back a century-old law protecting most American wild bird species despite warnings that billions of birds could die as a result.
  • President Trump vowed Friday to open the nation’s only national monument in the Atlantic Ocean to commercial fishing. He signed a proclamation declaring the opening after attending a roundtable discussion with commercial fishermen in Bangor, Maine.
  • Trump signed an executive order instructing agencies to waive long-standing environmental laws to speed up federal approval for new mines, highways, pipelines and other projects given the current economic “emergency.” Critics say the move will disproportionately impact communities of color.
Immigration news:
  • Report finds ICE detention centre is using a disinfectant over 50 times a day that causes bleeding and pain
  • Homeland Security’s Inspector General Is Opening A Review Of The Department’s Treatment Of Pregnant Detainees. The announcement comes following BuzzFeed News’ report of a woman giving birth in a detention center near San Diego.
  • ICE special agents detain Floyd protester in NYC. "The fact that he's a man of Puerto Rican descent is really concerning because it raises questions about racial profiling," said Terry Lawson, of the Immigrant Defense Project.
  • The Trump Administration Said It Didn’t Change Policy To Deny Housing Loans To DACA Recipients. Emails Show Otherwise. New documents show that the Trump administration moved to block young undocumented immigrants from federal housing loans in 2018.
  • People are sawing through and climbing over Trump’s border wall. Now contractors are being asked for ideas to make it less vulnerable.
  • Supreme Court rules immigrants who fear torture can appeal deportations in court
  • Dozens Of Immigrant Families Who Were Separated At The Border Likely Shouldn't Have Been, An Internal Report Found
submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

Chainblades Informational Guide by Rolia

Hi all!
I've seen how a lot of people are confused over the current state of Chainblades as to what is up to date information and what isn't, as most of the information out for them right now is rather old. Hopefully this guide can help correct a lot of the "misinformation" that is out there at this moment.
The Chainblades are a highly mobile, fast hitting weapon. They excel at making you incredibly sticky to your target whilst also giving you multiple tools to be safe during combat. It is a slashing type weapon, meaning it's great at breaking those tails/horns quickly (50% part damage to those parts.) If you're the kinda person that loves the idea of wielding dagger like weapons (who doesn't like daggers amirite?) and loves the idea of mobility, then this is your weapon.
Now lets break them down.

Combos

Chainblades has an arsenal of combos, too bad you only care about one of them (for the most part)! I will label the combos as L/Q/D. L being your Bladed hits, R being your Chain hits, Q being the Special, and D for Dodge/Dash. (Shoutout to u/Meirnon)
DPS Combos
LLLLL (Bladed Edge) - This combo does not require/use stamina and does 11 hits total (2,2,2,3,2) doing 800 base damage.
LLRL (Swinging Blades) - This combo uses 20 stamina per usage, does not require stamina to use, and does 12 hits total (2,2,7,1) doing 895 base damage.
LLLRL (Blade Spin) - This combo uses 2.5 stamina per R usage and DOES require stamina to do additional R hits, and does 25* hits (2,2,19*,1) doing 1695 base damage.
RRR (Chain Fling) - This combo uses 30 stamina per usage but does not require stamina to use, and does 4-9 hits (Vertical swing: 1-3, Horizontal swing:1-2, 1-2, 2-4) dealing 350-775 base damage.
QL (Reaper's Dance) - This combo requires a Special Point to use, does 1 hit of 250 base damage, and should the attack hit it will generate a stack of reaper's dance for an additional 160 base damage per stack for QR.
QR (Reaper's Dance) - This combo requires a Special Point to use, and does 1 hit of 400-2000 base damage, depending on stacks generated from QLs.
Utility Combos
D -> L - This combo uses 20 stamina per usage and requires at least 1 stamina to perform.
D -> R - This combo uses 30 stamina per usage and requires at least 1 stamina to perform.
Q - This ability requires 1 Special Point to complete.
R -> Q - This combo uses 10 stamina per usage and requires no stamina to use, but at least 1 Special Point to complete. This combo requires you to be moving forward before you press R.
D -> R -> Q - This combo uses 30 stamina per usage, requires 1 stamina to perform and 1 Special Point to complete.
D -> L is our boop method. Yes it was recently nerfed, but it's still our primary way to try to boop. You will need to either land the L attack fairly precisely, or dash through the behemoth's hitbox (activating conditional extension) before you attack to land the boop successfully. RIP if you have bad latency though.
D -> R is a combo that is used to bounce back projectiles like Stormclaws shock Orbs, and if you happen to do use weighted strikes 6, can also be a great combo for booping.
The other utility combos here are just different ways to get back onto the behemoth, gap closers to so speak. Each one are used for different situations, mainly distance and current stamina. I use all 3 regularly, just depends on the situation.
Note: Attack speed increases the amount of hits LLLRL does during the R portion of the combo instead of reducing the time it does to do the attack. This is a bug.
Note: Chain Fling has 2 possible variations on which attack it does first. The first attack in the combo can either be a horizontal swing or vertical swing, doing up to 2 or up to 3 hits respectively. You can control which variation it does. By standing still before you Chain Fling you will start with the Vertical Swing. If you are moving forward as you Chain Fling you will start with the Horizontal Swing.

Specials

Reaper's Dance - This ability is our main way to dodge, as it launches us up in the air giving us invulnerability frames through the entire time you are in the air, losing them as you come back down for an attack or by letting the hang time end. In addition to the evasiveness, it also has 2 separate opportunities to dish out damage. Reaper's into a Primary attack will result in damage dealt and give a stack towards Reaper's Secondary attack portion of the special. The stacks cap out at 10. Reaper's into a Secondary attack will unleash these stacks into bonus damage on this portion of the ability.
Insatiable Dance - Very similar to Reaper's dance, but your Insatiable Primary attacks instead gain a stacking buff that will give you healing based on how many stacks you have when you unleash an Insatiable Secondary attack. Once the Secondary attack hits, it will heal you based off the stacks (50 healing per stack), and then drop a healing orb that gives you additional health on top of that (75 healing per stack). Every 2 stacks you have you spawn an additional orb. It rounds down so you will gain extra orbs on Odd number stacks, (1 on 1, 2 on 3, 3 on 5, etc.) The healing per stack is 125 healing per stack in total, up to 1250 healing at 10 stacks. The orbs will hone to you if you are hurt, but stop honing to you if you are full HP. The orbs are shareable with the party.
Cruel Riftstrike - This ability "portals" you from one location to another, going towards the location of where your camera is pointing. If you land the hit, it deals a guaranteed critical hit of damage at a base damage of 75. You can not be hit during the portion of the attack where you are "gone".

Mods

Demolition Blades - After you use a special, you deal 100% additional damage to objects created by behemoths (pylons, shrowd bubble thing, vines, etc) for 6 seconds.
Hurricane Blades - R hits from the LLLRL combo generate stacks of this buff, which when expended by the use of LLLLL/LLRL/RRR each hit in those combos will deal an additional 20 base damage per hit. The stacks cap out at 25.
Lightweight Chain - When dashing towards a behemoth, the stamina requirement is reduced by 50%, bringing the total stamina used from dashing to 10 stamina.
Momentum Blades - After using a Special, you gain a buff that allows 1 free usage of another Special. This means you can do up to 8 Specials in a row, compared to the 4 in a row without this mod.
Serrated Blades - L hits of any combo that has L hits has a 5% chance to proc this buff, in which guarantees the R part of the LLRL combo to critically hit with each R hit in the combo.

Playstyles

As of the current state of the meta for the Chainblades, there's 2 main playstyles for them. These playstyles are based on which weapon UE you are using at the time. I will list builds for these playstyles later on. These playstyles assume you are using the Reaper's Dance special, as that is the only good special Chainblades have. I have included video links to both playstyles if you prefer to see them inaction, but also give a brief description of each playstyle as well in written form.
LLRL spamming - This is our primary DPS combo, as nothing else beats it in terms of DPS. The DPS of this combo gets even further ahead of the others once Serrated Blades comes into the picture, which is the optimal mod to be using with this playstyle. All builds except 1 use Serrated Blades as its primary mod. Which build doesn't? I'll get to that soon.
To expand on this playstyle, during the hunt you are effectively just spamming LLRL until you need to dodge. Use Reapers for dodging, or if you need to Dash for some reason, then switch to using L hits to save stamina for a Dash. Use reaper's at 10 stacks for maximum damage or earlier if you think you will get a part break or proc a stagger. I often use reaper's earlier than 10 stacks to get the quicker break/stagger, so feel free to do so.
Q spamming - This playstyle is only effective with one build setup, and that's with the Boreus Chainblades using the Momentum Blades mod. The DPS of this playstyle becomes better than LLRL spamming when combining the UE of this weapon with QL hits, as the base damage of those hits become very high. Momentum Blades enables this playstyle even further so it is the suggested mod of choice.
To build upon the Q spamming playstyle I have a video that goes over how to properly play it here. That being said I can give the run down of it here.
The optimal DPS for the Q spamming playstyle is be spamming QL's, but you can only do so many at a time before you have to generate them. Once you run out, you use LLRL to generate them back, as it is our highest DPS combo, it will generate the stacks back the fastest. Once you reach 10 stacks, unleash QR for a massive hit. Drask lantern is the lantern of choice for this build, so save it for when you are either generating stacks, unleashing a 10 stack QR, or at 7 stacks to a 10 stacked QR (as you can fit 3 QLs and a QR in the full duration of Drask tap.)
When generating Special Points, it's best to keep in mind to not overcap on your Special meter, so I recommend getting 3 Special Points plus a little extra charge and then stopping there, as you risk overcapping on Special meter if you we're to go up to 4, which results in a DPS loss.

Builds

I will go head and list builds that are the meta for the Chainblades in a variety of different content, for both solo and group play. The builds adhere to the meta playstyles from above. The description of the build is based off the weapon you are currently using, not what you are fighting against.
General Hunts
Torgadoro Solo
Torgadoro Group
Boreus Solo/Group
Shock Escalation
Torgadoro Solo
Torgadoro Group
Blaze Escalation
Boreus Solo/Group
Umbral Escalation
Torgadoro Solo/Group
Trial builds are not included because they are specific to the trial itself to be the most optimized. However most of the trials can be easily done with just the standard Torgadoro general hunt builds. You can also head over to the Community discord and look in the pins in the #meta-discussion channel for the weekly updated Trial Chainblades build, as I rotate them each week and update the builds there for all weapons.
Note: While you are using Torgadoro weapons, I advise to NOT use the legendary ability that it provides, as it is a DPS loss compared to just regularly DPSing with the Chainblades base combos.

Tidbits about the weapon

Many people think you can only boop with weighted strikes 6, this is NOT true anymore for this weapon. You can now boop with bladed hits, so this means you can do D -> L for any boop in the game without the need of Weighted Strikes 6. In addition to D -> L, you can also boop with QL (Reaper's Dance Primary attack). I use that boop method for pangar pretty often.
You'll notice Torgadoro is our primary weapon of choice, the reason why is because it's the best DPS UE there is for Chainblades, as the UE itself is roughly an additional 27-32% multiplicative DPS increase overall for the weapon depending on which combo you are using. Only the Boreus UE rivals the power of this weapon currently, nothing else even comes close.
If you do not have Serrated Blades or Momentum Blades, I suggest just using Lightweight Chain or Hurricane Blades as your mod of choice. Both are fairly weak at this moment and will provide similar kill times. Hurricane blades is hard to use effectively and will be hard to make good use of, so I suggest lightweight chain over Hurricane blades personally.
The Boreus build does not use attack speed because for some reason attack speed doesn't effect how quickly you can do QL's/QR's. This makes attack speed a non-desirable stat for the Q spamming playstyle.
Our Special meter generation is based on how damage we deal, the exception to this is LLLRL. For some reason LLLRL has a special modifier to lower it's meter gain, effectively making it terrible for meter gain. This is why I recommend LLRL for meter generation as it is our highest dps combo, therefor making it our best combo at generating Special Points quickly.
Chainblades are the only weapon with a "Dash" instead of a Dodge roll ability to i-frame with. This dodge ability is quick and goes farther than a dodge roll would, while still having the same I-frame count the dodge roll has. The i-frames of this Dash start at the beginning like the dodge roll does.

Closing thoughts

I realize the Chainblade rework is soon to come at some point. Once it does, I will be making a new guide similar to this going over how to use/build the reworked weapon as well. I'll try to have a video guide in addition. If any additional changes come before the rework though, I'll update this post.
Hopefully this guide helps someone out there. If there is additional information I should add to the post or if I got something wrong, please let me know and I'll amend the post. I'll also be updating this with additional information as I think of it.
Good luck out there slayers!
Edit: Up to date as of 06/30/2020. Added some gifs to the combos and specials, as well as a couple videos showcasing the 2 playstyles.
submitted by Rolia1 to dauntless [link] [comments]

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